Results of a new national poll conducted by ABC News were spread. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
ABC News poll results
The poll was conducted from August 1 to August 4 with 815 participants. The margin of error is +/-4.0 percentage points, which means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can contain large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 54.4% for Clinton and 45.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.1%. An average of recent polls has Clinton at 53.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the ABC News poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote. This means that the combined PollyVote is 0.8 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's margin of error.