Results of a new poll conducted by NBC-WSJ-Marist were published. The poll asked participants from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
According to the results, 48.0% of interviewees will cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 37.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 3 to August 7. A total of 834 registered voters responded. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may contain substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 43.5% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania sees Clinton at 44.8% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the NBC-WSJ-Marist poll Clinton's poll average is 1.3 percentage points better. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 45.5% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that the combined PollyVote is 2.0 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is insignificant.