Ohio: 5 points lead for Clinton in new NBC-WSJ-Marist poll
NBC-WSJ-Marist published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Historically, Ohio has been a swing state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. Hence, forecasts here are of particular value.
NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of participants would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 3 to August 7. A total of 889 registered voters responded. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.3 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they sometimes contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 46.9% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 47.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Ohio. Compared to numbers in the NBC-WSJ-Marist poll Clinton's poll average is 0.3 percentage points better. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 48.0% of the two-party vote in Ohio. This means that the PollyVote is 1.1 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this difference is negligible.