Methods completely agreerelatively divided on the election outcome
In today's update, Polly concludes that Clinton will garner 53.6% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 46.4% for Trump. There is relative disagreement among the two available component methods: Two predict a victory for Clinton and speculates that Trump will win. The component methods have all come to the same conclusion. All prediction models expect Clinton to win.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are aggregated polls with a vote share of 53.1% for Clinton. With a vote share of 58.6% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.
When comparing predictions for previous elections the vote share for the Democrats is notably high with 53.1% in combined polls. Since 1996 they had not gained so many votes at this time during the course of the election. At that time, combined polls expected a vote share of 54.9% for Democratic candidate.