Leading indicators model: Trump trails by a small margin

The Leading indicators model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 52.0% for Clinton, and 48.0% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be treated with caution, as they often include large biases. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.2%. If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.2%. This value is 2.9 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Leading indicators model.

The Leading indicators model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Leading indicators model for Clinton are thus 1.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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