Latest Lockerbie model: Trump and Clinton in a virtual tie

The Lockerbie model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 50.4% for Clinton, and 49.6% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models may include substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.2% of the two-party vote. Clinton currently achieves 49.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Lockerbie model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lockerbie model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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