Jérôme & Jérôme model: Clinton tied with Trump
The Jérôme & Jérôme model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton and Trump will each win 50% of the two-party vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be treated with caution, because they often include substantial errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton can currently count on 49.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Clinton currently runs at 49.2% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to the average forecast of other models Clinton performed 1 percentage point better in the Jérôme & Jérôme model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.7% and Trump 46.4% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 3.6 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.