Issues and Leaders model: Trump trails by a small margin
The Issues and Leaders model enters the index models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 52.0% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.0%.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models may include large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results vs. other index models
Clinton currently runs at 53.9% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. An average of recent index models has Clinton at 53.9% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 1.9 percentage points better.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.7 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.