Issue-index model shows Clinton in the lead
The Issue-index model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 56.2% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 43.8%.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models should be treated with caution, since they often contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results vs. other index models
An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 54.0% of the two-party vote. An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 54.0% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Issue-index index model Clinton's index model average is 2.2 percentage points lower.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issue-index model for Clinton are thus 2.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.