Sustained advantage for Trump in new Ipsos/Reuters poll
Ipsos/Reuters published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Ipsos/Reuters poll results
The poll was conducted via Internet from August 20 to August 24 among 1049 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.1 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, since they may include large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, you should consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 45.5% for Clinton and 54.6% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 47.0%. An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 53.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 7.6 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Ipsos/Reuters poll. This margin is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.4% of the two-party vote. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 8.2 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.