Results of a new poll carried out by Franklin & Marshall were spread. The poll asked interviewees from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Franklin & Marshall poll results
The results show that 49.0% of respondents will give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 38.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 29 to August 2. A total of 389 likely voters responded. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-6.3 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, since they can contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 43.7% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 44.9%. Compared to numbers in the Franklin & Marshall poll Clinton's poll average is 1.2 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 45.5% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 1.8 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is insignificant.