Fiscal model model: Trump is in the lead
The Fiscal model model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 48.2% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 51.8%.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be interpreted with caution, because they can incorporate large biases. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.9%. Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.2%. This value is 1 percentage point lower than respective numbers in the Fiscal model model.
The Fiscal model model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Fiscal model model for Trump are thus 5.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.