Fiscal model model: Trump is in the lead

The Fiscal model model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 48.2% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 51.8%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be interpreted with caution, because they can incorporate large biases. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.9%. Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.2%. This value is 1 percentage point lower than respective numbers in the Fiscal model model.

The Fiscal model model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Fiscal model model for Trump are thus 5.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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