Fair model: Trump with clear lead
The Fair model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 44.0% for Clinton, and 56.0% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.9% of the two-party vote. If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.2%. This value is 5.2 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Fair model.
The Fair model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 9.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the Fair model.