Fair model: Trump with clear lead

The Fair model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 44.0% for Clinton, and 56.0% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.9% of the two-party vote. If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.2%. This value is 5.2 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Fair model.

The Fair model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 9.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the Fair model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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