DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 48.1% for Clinton, and 51.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.9%. Clinton currently achieves 49.1% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1 percentage point lower than corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 5.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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