Bloomberg released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Bloomberg poll results
The poll was conducted from August 5 to August 8 with 749 respondents. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often include large errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 53.2% for Clinton and 46.8% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.1%. An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 53.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.1 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Bloomberg poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote. That is, the combined PollyVote is 0.4 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is negligible.