Clinton tied with Trump in latest LA Times poll
LA Times released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
LA Times poll results
According to the results, former First Lady Hillary Clinton and businessman Donald Trump are on equal standing, each with 44.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted from August 18 to August 24. A total of 2396 respondents responded. If one accounts for the poll's sampling error of +/-2.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, don't rely too much on the results of a single poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump in the two-party vote share.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.1%. In comparison to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 3.1 percentage points worse in the poll. This deviation is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.6% and Trump 46.4% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 3.6 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is significant.