Quinnipiac poll in Pennsylvania: Trump behind by 10 points
Quinnipiac released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Quinnipiac poll results
Of those who answered the question, 52.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between July 30 and August 7. The sample size was 815 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.4 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include large errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 44.7% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania sees Clinton at 44.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.2 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Quinnipiac poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 45.5% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 0.8 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is negligible.