Bio-index model: Clinton is in the lead

The Bio-index model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 58.8% for Clinton, and 41.2% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. In general, you should not put too much trust in the results of a single index model. At the very least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other index models

Clinton currently achieves 53.9% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent index models. If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.9%. This value is 4.9 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Bio-index index model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Bio-index model for Clinton are thus 5.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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