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538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton is in the lead

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The 538 (polls-plus) model provided an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 52.1% for Clinton, and 47.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Clinton at 49.1% of the two-party vote. An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 3 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 1.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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