The Big-issue model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models often include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, one should consult combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models has Clinton at 53.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.8 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Big-issue index model.
The Big-issue model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 2.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.