Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in latest UPI/CVOTER poll
By UPI/CVOTER released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
UPI/CVOTER poll results
The Internet poll was carried out between August 14 and August 20. The sample size was 1191 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-2.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, as they often contain large biases. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 49.5% for Clinton and 50.5% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls has Trump at 47.0% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the UPI/CVOTER poll Trump's poll average is 3.5 percentage points lower. This margin is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote is 4.0 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.
