Results of a new national poll administered by LA Times were published. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
LA Times poll results
This poll was conducted from August 17 to August 23, among a random sample of 2396 participants. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-2.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, one should not focus too much on the results of a single poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump. On August 23 Clinton received only 50.0% in the LA Times poll and Trump received 50.0%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls has Clinton at 53.0% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the LA Times poll Clinton's poll average is 1.9 percentage points higher. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 2.4 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this deviation is significant.