Results of a new poll administered by Suffolk University were circulated. The poll asked respondents from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Suffolk University poll results
Of those who responded, 50.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 25 to July 27. A total of 500 likely voters responded. The error margin is +/-4.4 percentage points. This means that the poll results for both candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can incorporate substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 55.0% for Clinton and 45.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania has Clinton at 55.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.2 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Suffolk University poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that Polly's prediction is 0.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.