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New Bloomberg poll: Trump trails by a slight margin

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Bloomberg released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

Bloomberg poll results
50

Clinton

44

Trump

The poll was conducted from August 5 to August 8 with 749 respondents. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not have too much faith in the results of a single poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 53.2% for Clinton and 46.8% for Trump.

Results in comparison to other polls

Clinton can currently count on 53.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls. Clinton is currently at 53.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls. This value is 0 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Bloomberg poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's prediction is 0.2 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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