Results of a new national poll conducted by Reuters were published. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Reuters poll results
The poll was conducted between August 13 and August 17. The sample size was 1049 participants. The sampling error is +/-3.5 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for Clinton and Trump do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, because they often include large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 53.3% for Clinton and 46.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 53.1% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls. In comparison to numbers in the Reuters poll Clinton's poll average is 0.2 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. Hence, the PollyVote is 0.2 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.