Reuters poll: Clinton with 5 points lead
By Reuters released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Reuters poll results
The poll was carried out from August 13 to August 17 among 1049 participants. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may include substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 53.3% for Clinton and 46.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 53.1% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. In comparison to numbers in the Reuters poll Clinton's poll average is 0.3 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's forecast is 0.2 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.
