Primary model shows Trump in the lead

The Primary model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 47.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 52.5%.

Putting the results in context

Single models often include substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.9%. This value is 1.7 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Primary model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Primary model for Trump are thus 6.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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