Primary model shows Trump in the lead
The Primary model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 47.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 52.5%.
Putting the results in context
Single models often include substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.9%. This value is 1.7 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Primary model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Primary model for Trump are thus 6.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.