Results of a new poll conducted by NBC-WSJ-Marist were distributed. The poll asked interviewees from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
The results show that 48.0% of interviewees indicated that they would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 37.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 3 to August 7, among a random sample of 834 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they can incorporate large biases. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 56.5% for Clinton and 43.5% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania sees Clinton at 55.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the NBC-WSJ-Marist poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 1.9 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is insignificant.