Ohio: Small advantage for Clinton in new CBS News/YouGov poll
CBS News/YouGov published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Historically, Ohio has been a swing state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is why forecasts here are of particular importance.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
Of those who responded, 46.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 17 to August 19 with 997 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, as they may contain substantial errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 53.5% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
If we look at an average of Ohio polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.8%. This value is 0.7 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.1% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 1.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.