Ohio: New Quinnipiac poll shows Clinton with 4 points lead
By Results of a new poll conducted by Quinnipiac were distributed. The poll asked participants from Ohio for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Historically, Ohio has been a battleground state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. This is why predictions here are of particular value.
Quinnipiac poll results
Of those who responded, 49.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from July 30 to August 7, among a random sample of 812 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.4 points. This means that the levels of voter support for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may include substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Ohio sees Clinton at 52.8% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Quinnipiac poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier. The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.1% of the two-party vote in Ohio.
