UPI/CVOTER released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
UPI/CVOTER poll results
This poll was conducted via Internet from August 14 to August 20, among a random sample of 1191 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, because they can include large biases. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 49.5% for Clinton and 50.5% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Trump currently runs at 47.0% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls. This value is 3.5 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the UPI/CVOTER poll. This difference is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 4.0 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this deviation is significant.