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New Lockerbie model: Clinton and Trump in a virtual tie

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The Lockerbie model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 50.4% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 49.6%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they can contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 49.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Lockerbie model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lockerbie model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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