The Lockerbie model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 50.4% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 49.6%.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they can contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently achieves 49.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Lockerbie model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lockerbie model.