New Lewis-Beck & Tien model: Trump and Clinton in a tossup
The Lewis-Beck & Tien model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will garner 51.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 48.9%.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be interpreted with caution, as they may contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the recommended strategy use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Clinton can currently count on 49.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model Clinton's econometric model average is 2 percentage points lower.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model for Clinton are thus 2.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.