The Electoral-cycle model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will receive 48.6% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 51.4%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, you should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.9%. This value is 0.6 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Electoral-cycle model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Electoral-cycle model.