New Electoral-cycle model: Clinton and Trump in a dead heat

The Electoral-cycle model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will receive 48.6% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 51.4%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, you should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.9%. This value is 0.6 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Electoral-cycle model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Electoral-cycle model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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