New Bloomberg poll: Trump trails by a slight margin
By Bloomberg published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, participants were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Bloomberg poll results
The poll was carried out from August 5 to August 8 with 749 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may include large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 53.2% for Clinton and 46.8% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.1%. In comparison to numbers in the Bloomberg poll Clinton's poll average is 0.1 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's forecast is 0.3 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this deviation is negligible.
