Methods widely agree on the election outcome

Today, PollyVote concludes that Clinton will gain 53.4% of the national two-party vote, compared to 46.6% for Trump. The PollyVote's component methods widely agree on who will win the election: Four predict a win for Clinton and one predicts that Trump will win.

According to the econometric models Trump is right now leading with 50.9%.

Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are combined polls with a vote share of 53.2% for Clinton. The prediction markets present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 58.4% of the vote.

With 49.2% in econometric models the vote share for the Democrats is quite low in comparison to previous election years. This is the lowest value at that time in the campaign since 2004, when John Kerry ran against George W. Bush. At that time, econometric models expected a vote share of 45.3% for Democratic candidate John Kerry, in the end he reached 48.8%.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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