Leading indicators model shows Clinton in the lead
The Leading indicators model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 52.0% for Clinton, and 48.0% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, we recommend to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.2%. This value is 2.9 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Leading indicators model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.5 percentage points more compared to the results of the Leading indicators model.