Clinton and Trump virtually tied in latest Time-for-change model

The Time-for-change model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, since they may contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, one should consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.9%. This value is 0.6 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Time-for-change model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Time-for-change model for Trump are thus 4.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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