The Jérôme & Jérôme model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a tie, with both Clinton and Trump obtaining 50% of the two-party vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models can contain substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.2% of the two-party vote. In comparison to the average forecast of other models Clinton performed 1 percentage point better in the Jérôme & Jérôme model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.5% and Trump 46.5% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 3.4 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.