Issues and Leaders model: Clinton is in the lead

The Issues and Leaders model is included in the index models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a major vote share of 52.0% for Clinton, and 48.0% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models can incorporate substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single index models, the best practice is to look at combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models has Clinton at 53.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.9 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.

The Issues and Leaders model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.