Issue-index model: Clinton is in the lead

The Issue-index model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a major vote share of 56.2% for Clinton, and 43.8% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models should be regarded with caution, because they often contain substantial errors. Rather, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 54.0% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the Issue-index index model Clinton's index model average is 2.2 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.7 percentage points less compared to the results of the Issue-index model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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