Issue-index model: Clinton is in the lead
The Issue-index model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a major vote share of 56.2% for Clinton, and 43.8% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models should be regarded with caution, because they often contain substantial errors. Rather, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 54.0% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the Issue-index index model Clinton's index model average is 2.2 percentage points lower.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.7 percentage points less compared to the results of the Issue-index model.