Fiscal model model: Trump is in the lead

The Fiscal model model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.2% for Clinton, and 51.8% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they can incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.9%. In comparison to numbers in the Fiscal model model Trump's econometric model average is 1 percentage point lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the Fiscal model model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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