Fair model: Clinton trails by a clear margin

The Fair model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 44.0% for Clinton, and 56.0% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 5.2 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Fair model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Fair model for Trump are thus 9.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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