DeSart model: Clinton trails by a small margin

The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 48.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 51.9%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models may contain substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.9% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 1 percentage point lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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