The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 48.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 51.9%.
Putting the results in context
Individual models may contain substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results vs. other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.9% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 1 percentage point lower.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.