Results of a new poll carried out by Franklin & Marshall were distributed. The poll asked respondents from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Franklin & Marshall poll results
Of those who answered the question, 49.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 38.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between July 29 and August 2. The sample size was 389 likely voters. The error margin is +/-6.3 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, because they often contain large biases. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 56.3% for Clinton and 43.7% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 55.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. Compared to her numbers in the Franklin & Marshall poll Clinton's poll average is 1.2 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 1.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.