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Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in new LA Times poll

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Results of a new national poll carried out by LA Times were circulated. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

LA Times poll results
45

Clinton

43

Trump

The poll was carried out from August 17 to August 23 with 2396 participants. If one accounts for the poll's sampling error of +/-2.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump.

Results compared to other polls

Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.0%. This value is 1.9 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the LA Times poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 2.4 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is significant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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