Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in latest Keys to the White House index model

The Keys to the White House model is captured in the index models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 51.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.5%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single index models, as they may contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other index models

Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.9%. Relative to numbers in the Keys to the White House index model Clinton's index model average is 2.4 percentage points better.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Keys to the White House model for Clinton are thus 2.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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