8 points lead for Clinton in latest ABC News poll
ABC News released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
ABC News poll results
The poll was conducted from August 1 to August 4. A total of 815 respondents responded. If one accounts for the poll's error margin of +/-4.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they can incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 54.4% for Clinton and 45.7% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.3%. An average of recent polls has Clinton at 53.3% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the ABC News poll Clinton's poll average is 1.2 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's prediction is 1.0 point below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this deviation is insignificant.