538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton with small lead

The 538 (polls-plus) model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 52.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 47.9%.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be interpreted with caution, because they often incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently runs at 49.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 3 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

The 538 (polls-plus) model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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