The 538 (polls-plus) model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 52.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 47.9%.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be interpreted with caution, because they often incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently runs at 49.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 3 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.
The 538 (polls-plus) model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.