Virtual tie between Clinton and Trump in new Lewis-Beck & Tien model
The Lewis-Beck & Tien model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 51.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 48.9%.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they often incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, we recommend to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.2%. This value is 2 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model for Clinton are thus 2.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.